30 Library Technology Predictions for 2008 (sur le blog Stephen's Lighthouse).

Les 10 premières:

1. There will be some Internet speed and congestion issues in 2008 on a scale that hit AOL in the early days. There will be hand-wringing blog posts and I-told-you-so stories in the MSM.
2. Facebook will suffer some wonkiness in '08 but will grow rapidly through acquisition and business partnerships. The F8 platform initiative will do better in 08 than the Google OpenSocial initiative but OpenSocial will win out in the end. Ads will survive and all the chest beating will have the same effect that it had when the web went commercial. Watch for financial, global, mobile, multilingual, and other niche stuff from MySpace.
3. Microsoft and Yahoo! will suffer some acrimony and that will result in some sort of business alliance. The Open Content Alliance will be part of this and some relationship to academia, research, and scholarly publishing.
4. Google will continue to draw more attention and this may expand into the beginning of a US federal or EC investigation into their growth, power and business practices. The end of the religion is nigh. We'll see strong evidence of a public Google backlash and more questioning and distrust in '08. Libraries should capitalize on their position as trusted, non-partisan services at this point.
5. The Apple iPhone will see lots of competition as the mobility space gets very crowded and exciting. Everyone will be be working very hard to meet mobile content and experience user expectations. Watch for new 'cool' or 'sick' phones from Nintendo, Motorola, Nokia, Google and Microsoft. End users are increasingly mobile.
6. Open Source software will grow - especially in the user experience space where it will do very well. Most niche-based projects will have very wobbly years and lose the attention of the host institutions supporting the initiatives. Think Sakai vs Blackboard. Follow the money. Can it sustain the developers and their healthcare premiums?
7. Many (1,000's?) of the start-up Web 2.0 companies (especially those expecting huge ad revenues) will fail or merge into mainstream web companies. Start up consolidation will start to look like another bubble bursting - perhaps we'll see the rebirth of the famous F#ckedCompany.com? Some equity and venture investors will be looking to other investment areas and planning their exit.
9. The DRM wars are just beginning. Open Access rules for government information will expand. The RIAA will suffer loss of financial strength (especially after strongman Valenti's passing) as members rebel over the high cost of RIAA dues and lawsuits against tweens and their own shrinking margins. Suing customers is rarely a good strategy.
10. Bad laws will be attempted with regard to phishing, spam, viruses, filtering, censorship, ID Theft, and privacy. Library associations will be challenged to deal with a heavy load in representing end user rights and balance. The issue is global and few governments, associations or businesses are equipped to address the problem effectively on that scale.

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Via PSLB